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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still